Democrats are leading Republicans in projections for both chambers of the United States Congress ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections, according to the latest forecast by election data provider Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).

The forecast, updated ahead of Election Day on November 3, gives Democrats an estimated 241 seats in the House of Representatives, compared to 194 for Republicans. A party needs at least 218 seats to secure a majority in the 435-member chamber.

In the Senate, Democrats are projected to secure approximately 52 seats against 48 for Republicans, potentially giving them control of the upper chamber, which requires 51 seats for a majority.

DDHQ's forecast also indicates that Democrats have an 84 per cent probability of gaining control of the House, while their chances of securing a Senate majority stand at 64 per cent.

The gubernatorial projections present a different picture, with Republicans maintaining a narrow advantage in some of the contests, although the overall outlook varies across individual states.

The projections highlight the competitive political environment facing President Donald Trump and the Republican Party as voters head to the polls to elect members of Congress and governors.

The midterm elections are particularly significant because they determine the balance of power in Congress, influencing the administration's ability to advance legislation, approve appointments and oversee federal government operations.

However, the figures remain forecasts rather than confirmed election results, with actual outcomes dependent on votes cast and officially counted across the country.

Decision Desk HQ publishes election forecasts based on polling data, race-level assessments and statistical modelling.

The 2026 US midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026.